This is my 2 cents about what Ranil did at GGG yesterday (22 July 2022).
LET ME BE VERY CLEAR FROM THE START - This is not a write-up defending Ranil Wickramasinghe . This is not an apology for Ranil W's action. I am my own man and I don't need to write apologies for anyone.
This is an analysis - a point of view. Please take it as that. You will disagree with what I say, and you have that right as much as I have a right to say what I believe.
Most people, including western ambassadors are deeply concerned. Many people I spoke to say this is provocative and now Ranil's days are numbered. There is talk of August 9. Nine seems to be the auspicious day for #Aragalaya to chase national leaders from office.
This itself is deeply concerning and that I believe what prompted RW to do what he did. He wanted to set the tone of his presidency. While you might question - is this the tone a new UNELECTED, vulnerable president wants to set? - I would say, in a country that has now become lawless with local thugs controlling petrol sheds, this tone is necessary.
He has firmly showed that neither #aragalaya, nor IUSF thugs and not even BASL activists can kick governments out anymore.
Aragalaya leaders had said they would leave, by 2.00pm on 22 July 2022. Why didnt Ranil wait? Why the unnecessary provocation? This is what boggles most people's minds.
This is my opinion on why he did it - not me defending what RW did
Had he allowed aragalaya activists to leave presidential secretariat victoriously, Ranil's presidency would have been at their mercy. They would call a huge press event and trumpet the fact that THEY brought Ranil to power and THEY will send him back. They would be all over the news now.
This would have emboldened not just genuine aragalaya chaps but all the miscreants, anarchists' and unsavory characters who occupy GGG today. Not just that, it would have allowed IUSF thugs to jump on the high horse and take over the Ranil Go Home bandwagon.
With this move, what Ranil did is that rather that having aragalaya leave victorious, he made them lick their wounds while snapping angrily. He took the risk of angering the western butterfly ambassadors, and hell of a lot of other people.
Ranil is not a likable character, but he is not a fool
Ranil is not a fool. He knew exactly what he would get from the western ambassadors, especially US, UK, Canada, Germany and EU. However, I am sure privately, he would have reminded them how the western governments dealt with such uprisings in their own countries. How USA treated Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, how they are prosecuting the congress building attackers, how France treated the Yellow Wests and how Australia treated Covid lockdown protesters.
Ever the chess player, Ranil took his chances. He angered west, pretty much killed the good faith many genuine aragalaya chaps had in him. He is now the blood on his hands president and a pariah.
While this is not ideal, one must remember that all these public sentiments are temporary. All Ranil needs to claw back is to solve the fuel issue.
Ranil must sort the fuel issue, and that would be his home run
Already gas shortage is on the mend, the rice and food crisis fears have at least for the moment subsided. Fertilizer is reaching farmers and orders for the next planting season is already on order (if we are to believe agri ministry)
The the one thing - and for the moment most important thing - Ranil needs to grapple is fuel issue. If and only if he solves this within the next few weeks (my opinion at least 4 more weeks needed) most people would forgive Ranil
That my friends remains to be seen.
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